Spaceguard Correspondence with Australian Government

On 16 January 1997 your Research Officer, Justin Owen, sent a reply to my letters dated 16 October 1996 and 1 January 1997 concerning funding cuts to "Spaceguard Australia". Since then I have sought advice from Dr Duncan Steel , the founder of the programme and it is now apparent that your Research Officer was mis-informed and that your portfolio is highly relevant.

Spaceguard Australia terminated on 31 December 1996 due to a lack of funds. There has been no "Anglo-Australian Near Earth Asteroid Survey" (AANEAS) for over a year - the programme was re-organised and became Spaceguard Australia on 1 January 1996.
Early in 1996 Dr Steel was approached by your Ministry asking what could or should be done by the Department of Defence. Dr Steel replied in detail and a response sent on your behalf said that "defending people against comet impacts is not a defence issue".
The Australian Research Council has, understandably, refused to fund the programme - this is not pure scientific research but an application of science.
The global programme (which is now restricted to the northern hemisphere) is treated by other countries as a defence issue. For example the US Air Force is actively involved and funds the programme with many millions of dollars. In the early days of the cold war small comets or meteorites entering the Earth's atmosphere nearly triggered missile warning systems.
The governments of many countries now recognise the threat to life on Earth posed by these objects and the need to detect and track objects in space which could collide with Earth - the Spaceguard Programme. We now have, or can develop, the technology to deal with such a threat but only if they are detected in time.
The lack of a programme in the southern hemisphere is severely hampering the global programme - an object detected in the north could be lost if it moves to the southern skies.

This is clearly a defence matter and a worthy use of defence resources in peacetime

There was a tremendous worldwide reaction to the rescue of the two yachtsmen and the contribution of the Australian Defence Forces. Imagine the reaction if a discovery of the Spaceguard programme resulted in millions of lives being saved. More importantly, consider the reaction if, due to the lack of a Spaceguard programme, an object was detected too late and catastrophe could not be avoided. The finger would be pointed at Australia and a handful politicians in power at the end of the twentieth century.

Yours faithfully

Michael Paine

Response from Mrs Bishop's office

Received a letter dated 30 September 1997 from Mrs Bishop's office stating that "Whilst Defence is a major user of space, this is only on the basis that it ... contributes to surveillance and [gathering] intelligence, mapping, navigation and communications" ... "possible that the Department of Industry, Science and Tourism may have an interest in this matter ... referred your letter to the Hon John Moore MP..."

Content of letter to John Howard (note the sense of frustration)

The Hon. John Howard M.P.
Prime Minister, Parliament House,Canberra ACT 2600

Ministerial Buck-passing

Dear Mr Howard,

Things have gone full circle! On 30 September last year the Executive Director of The Planetary Society wrote to you about the imminent demise of the Australian component of an important project to track space objects which could threaten life on Earth. That prompted me to write, on 16 October 1996, to my local MP, Bronwyn Bishop, in her capacity as Minister for Defence Industry, Science and Technology.

I followed up non-response to my letter on 18 January and pointed out the enormous PR benefits of support for Spaceguard Australia. I finally received a response on 30 September 1997, saying that it was not a Defence matter (I guess there is no "enemy" involved!) and my letter had been referred to the Department of Industry, Science and Tourism.

Well, I suppose that an asteroid impact on Earth could affect Australia's tourism prospects but that seemed a little obscure! Thankfully someone in John Moore's office realised this and has now referred my letter to the Minister for Employment, Education, Training and Youth Affairs. I am not sure whether this is because Australia's youth could be gainfully employed in Spaceguard Australia (provided they had PhDs) or if all your government's unemployment problems could be resolved by a well placed comet impact.

Seriously, the low cost Spaceguard Australia program gives your government a way of proving that it has a commitment to future generations and it is a very productive way to use defence resources in peacetime. Would you please direct one of your Ministers to take responsibility for this matter.

Copies of correspondence are attached.

Yours faithfully

Michael Paine

Letter from John Moore MP, Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism

27 Nov 97

Thank you for your letter of 24 June 1997, to the Hon Bronwyn Bishop MP, concerning the Spaceguard Australia project. I regret the delay in responding to your letter as it has recently been returned to me from the Minister for Employment, Education, Training and Youth Affairs.

The Spaceguard Survey arose from two studies undertaken by NASA in the early 1990's into means of identifying near earth asteroids and comets before a direct threat was posed to the planet. However, NASA has not funded the proposed Survey, electing instead to support other asteroid and comet research programs to a level of US$I million per annum. I believe that the Australian program to which your letter refers is the Anglo-Australian Near Earth Asteroid Survey, led by Dr Duncan Steel. This program concluded in 1995, when Commonwealth grant funding expired. The funding of any further such work is under consideration by several Government Departments which share responsibility for publicly funded science and technology, however, no decision has been reached at this time. I am not aware that Dr Steel's work was formally associated with the Spaceguard Survey, although he would be well acquainted with the NASA studies, and with the late Dr Eugene Shoemaker's work in Australia and elsewhere.

In relation to non-government Australian endeavours in this field, you may be interested to know of an Adelaide company called `Spaceguard Orbital Analysts' led by Mr John Hanson, Director Business Development, SGIC Building, 16th Floor, 211 Victoria Square, Adelaide

Yours sincerely John Moore (fax 02 62734104)

A glimmer of hope - they still haven't said "no"

My response to John Moore:

The Hon John Moore MP, Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism
Fax 02 62734104

Thank you for your informative letter dated 27 November concerning Spaceguard Australia and the search for NEO asteroids and comets which might pose a threat to the planet. It is good to hear that funding for this type of work is still under consideration by several Government Departments and has not been rejected outright. There are several issues in your letter which deserve clarification. It is very important that they be conveyed to the people who are considering the funding issue as there appear to be some misunderstandings.

Dr Duncan Steel was a member of both NASA studies that you refer to. He was also on the Board of Directors of the international Spaceguard Foundation (based in Rome and funded mainly by the European Space Agency) until Australian funding (from your portfolio) was withdrawn.
NASA has not withdrawn funding for Spaceguard-related projects - it has sought a substantial increase in funding from the US Government. In meantime it is continuing with related NEO research programs, along with the US Department of Defence, which is apparently spending tens of millions of dollars (for good reason - see below).

article

The point is that the Spaceguard project would go a long way towards quantifying these risks and avoiding economic loses as well as life-threatening situations.

In the absence of a formal organisation in Australia, I have set up an unofficial Spaceguard Australia Internet site:
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spaceg d.html. It has several links to important NEO sites around the world and I have also posted copies of my correspondence with the Australian Government. Members of The Planetary Society, The Australian Museum Society and many others are following the events with interest. I hope I can soon post some good news about Spaceguard Australia.

Regards, Michael Paine

Further response from John Moore's office.

Dear Mr Paine

I refer to your letter of 2 December 1997, to the Hon John Moore MP, Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism, concerning the search for near Earth asteroids and comets which might threaten our planet. The Minister has asked me to respond on his behalf.

At present, there is no prospect that funding will be made available from within this Department for the further search from Australia for Near Earth Objects (NEO). In announcing the future direction of Australia's national space program at the August 1996 budget, the Government articulated a research and development program for an indigenous small satellite construction and launch capability, under the Cooperative Research Centres scheme. This program (known as FEDSAT) significantly increased the Government's contribution to space science and applications expenditure, but did not provide new funds for institutional or commercial space programs and projects beyond the ambit of the FEDSAT program. In consequence, a number of existing activities supported through the industry portfolio, including Dr Steel's work, lapsed when their budgeted funds expired. While other Commonwealth agencies, including the Department of Defence, have considered funding NEO research, I am not aware that any currently view such research as sufficiently important to justify the appropriation of funds.

Regarding the points of clarification raised in your letter, I appreciate your advice regarding Dr Steel's involvement in the earlier NASA and ESA Spaceguard studies. As for funding of Spaceguard-related projects, I am well aware of the current NASA funded NEO research efforts but understand from an enquiry to NASA that the original international Spaceguard Survey, as proposed in the Ames Research Centre study of 1992, was not funded in the US or elsewhere.

I have noted your website and look forward to accessing it from time to time. In the absence of Commonwealth support for NEO research in the foreseeable future, your efforts should assist interested Australian parties to maintain a rapport with leading NEO research agencies in the northern hemisphere, and sustain hope for a truly global commitment to this important endeavour (!).

Yours sincerely
Mike Fowler
Manager Space Industries
Department of Industry, Science and Tourism (Fax 61 2 62137249)
16 December 1997

So much for the glimmer of hope!

Dr Jack Best

The search for asteroids and comets which might threaten life on Earth: a public health issue

In 1996 the Australian Government stopped funding of about $100,000 per year for "Spaceguard Australia" - the only Southern Hemisphere component of an international effort to locate and track asteroids and comets which might threaten life on Earth. The purpose of this submission is to seek NHMRC support for the reinstatement of Spaceguard Australia. The Planetary Society and many other groups have attempted, unsuccessfully, to have the Australian program reinstated. One of the problems has been that the topic does not fit into the portfolios of Defence (there is no "enemy") or Science (it is not "breakthrough technology").

There is a growing realisation that this work is more of a public health issue than defence or science. It is estimated that the chances of a US citizen dying from an asteroid/comet impact are about 1 in 20,000 - about the same risk as dying in a commercial aircraft crash. This is about 200 times less likely than dying in a car crash and 33 times less likely than dying from Melanoma but 5 times more likely than dying from a venomous bite or sting (US data).

The search for potentially hazardous asteroids and comets is equivalent to skin cancer prevention methods. Early detection is paramount if any positive (threatening) result is to be successfully mitigated. Continuing this comparison, it has been conservatively estimated by an NHMRC Working Party that about $4million per year is spent on sun protection health promotions throughout Australia. 1/33rds of this is about $120,000 - close to the previous budget for Spaceguard Australia. The benefits of a successful Spaceguard Program would not, however, just apply to the Australian population - they would apply to all of mankind and to future generations.

One of the most precious things we can pass on to future generations is knowledge important for survival - this is a major reason why the human species has succeeded on this planet. A stocktake of asteroids and comets in our time could prove crucial to future scientists trying to determine the orbit of potentially hazardous asteroids and comets.

Michael Paine

NSW Co-ordinator

The Planetary Society Australian Volunteer Co-ordinators

Response from Dr Best, NHMRC

The Strategic Research Development Committee is responsible for the following:

defining a research and research training agenda based on identified gaps in knowledge and skills;
enhancing the national research capacity, skills and institutional capability to respond in a focused and timely fashion to emerging health research needs;
developing the national capacity to identify, target, generate and link research-based knowledge which is applicable to programs policies and interventions;
fostering the ability to evaluate the application of research-based knowledge to programs, policies and interventions in medicine and public health.

Yours sincerely

Dr John Best
Chairman
Strategic Research Development Committee
9 July 1998

Bronwyn Bishop MP

16 August 1998

Dear Mrs Bishop

New Guinea Tsunami

The Australian Defence Forces did a magnificent job in the aftermath of the New Guinea Tsunami. The question that must have crossed everyone's mind was "could it happen here?". The answer is clearly "Yes". Dr Ted Bryant from the University of Wollongong has been studying unusual coastal features along the NSW South Coast and has come to the conclusion that the coast has been hit by several large tsunami in the past 10,000 years (see "The One-in-600-year wave", in the current issue of Nature Australia - in print before the New Guinea event).

Your own electorate is particularly vulnerable to a tsunami of the size which caused so much destruction in New Guinea. The intensely developed low lying areas of Newport, Mona Vale, Narrabeen, Collaroy, Dee Why, Harbord and Manly could be inundated by a 10 metre tsunami. From knowledge of the area gathered during my volunteer work on Warringah Council's LEP Community Advisory Committee, I estimate that, in Warringah alone, at least 5,000 dwellings are in the danger zone and that more than 12,000 people are at risk. The death toll from such a tsunami is likely to be at least 3,000, depending on the time of day and several other factors. This can probably be doubled if Pittwater and Manly are included.

One possible cause of devastating tsunami on the NSW coast is an asteroid or comet impact in the Pacific Ocean. Recently Los Almos National Laboratory in the USA (famous for nuclear weapons research) conducted computer simulations of the effects of such impacts. It was found that a 50m asteroid can cause a 30 metre tsunami on shorelines 1,000km from the impact. In 1908 such an asteroid hit a remote area of Siberia and flattened 2,000 square kilometres of forest. Based on the limited search for Earth-threatening asteroids to date, there is an estimated 1 in 50 chance of such an object hitting the Pacific Ocean near us in the next fifty years - this estimate is in reasonable agreement with the independent findings of the University of Wollongong. We really need to find out more about the risk of this type of event.

My point in writing to you is to suggest, once again, that your portfolio takes the initiative in the search for Earth-threatening asteroids and comets. Since I last wrote to you I have developed a comprehensive proposal for reviving the Australian component of Spaceguard. The document is on the Internet at http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/sg_prop.html .

Please let me know if you would like a printed copy.

Your faithfully
Michael Paine
NSW Volunteer Co-ordinator, The Planetary Society

Response from Mrs Bishop

Still waiting as at 16 November 1998.

Update

Bruce.Scott.MP

Dear Mr Scott,
Congratulations on your appointment as Minister Assisting the Minister
for Defence. I would like to brief you on a subject that I have raised
with the previous the Minister for Defence Science, Technology and
Personnel, Bronwyn Bishop. This is the need for an asteroid detection
program in Australia. Although this issue is of international
significance it was shunted between portfolios in Australia because it
does not fit clearly into "science" or "defence". I appealed to Mrs
Bishop to take the initiative and make it a defence issue but she
appears to have ignored that advice. The whole ten year Spaceguard
Australia program would cost less than $8 million overall. It would be a
vital part of a worldwide program which would find 90% of the most
threatening asteroids over the ten year period. This relatively low cost
peaceful use of Australian defence resources would have been a great
achievement for Mrs Bishop. I have also pointed out to Mrs Bishop that
an asteroid impact in the Pacific Ocean could generate a tsunami along
the east coast of Australia which would be larger than the one which hit
New Guinea in July.
Extensive information about Spacegaurd Australia is available on the
Internet at http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html
Please do not hesitate to contact me if you need further information.

Michael Paine
New South Wales Co-ordinator
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteer Co-ordinators
(more than 1,000 members in Australia and 100,000 worldwide)

Response from Bruce Scott

Still waiting as at 16 Nov 1998

Asteroid detection is currently not a priority for Defence

Mr Bruce Scott
Member for Maranoa
Minister Assisting the Minister for Defence

29 December 1998 2 pages

The Australian Search for Earth-threatening Asteroids

Michael Paine
New South Wales Co-ordinator
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteer Co-ordinators

cc Peter Anderson, Astronomical Association of Queensland
Martin Evans, Shadow Minister for Science and Information Technology

Mr Bruce Scott

Dear Mr Paine
Thank you for your letter of 29 December 1998 to the Minister Assisting the Minster for Defence concerning Australian asteroid detection. The Hon Bruce Scott MP has asked me to respond on his behalf.
The Minister acknowledges your letter and is aware of the issue of Earth threatening asteroids.
Thank you for bringing this matter to the Minister's attention.
Yours sincerely
Michael Shoebridge
Defence Adviser
Parliament House Canberra Fax 02 62734140

Martyn.Evans.MP

Shadow Minister for Science & Resources

Martyn,
On 24th September the TV show Quantum had an item about the search fro
earth-threatening asteroids and comets. At the end of the item Adam
Spencer mentioned that the ALP had indicated its support for restarting
this low-cost, high-benefit project.
The Government is trying to ignore this issue. I would appreciate it if
the ALP could raise the matter, perhaps in the Senate. See the link
below for details.
Regards
Michael Paine
New South Wales Co-ordinator
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
(Similar email also sent to To: Senator.Natasha Stott-Despoja, Australian Democrats)

Response from Martyn Evans

Michael

Thanks for the e-mail. This is a very serious issue but I always think
about the way we could pay for a very significant program from the cost of
just one of the movies on this topic!!!

I will certainly try to ensure we raise this issue in the Parliament. One
option will be the next Budget Estimates Committee sessions in the Senate
but it may be possible before this.

Keep in touch.

Martyn Evans MP
Shadow Minister for Science & Resources

Thank you for your email to Senator Natasha Stott Despoja. She has asked
me to respond. My apologies for the delay in responding.

The Australian Democrats are happy to support the Government or Opposition
in any financial allocation to research and development which is determined
to be relevant and appropriate.

We look forward to the matter being raised in the Parliament.

Charles

Further Emails:

Subject: Spaceguard raised in UK Parliament

The hazard from Near Earth Objects (asteroids and comets) is now the
subject of an excellent report by the UK Parliament. It is available in
PDF format at http://www.parliament.uk/post/pn126.pdf
It includes criticism of the lack of a southern hemisphere search effort
for NEOs. This is a great opportunity for a joint Australian/UK project
to set up a major NEO search effort in Australia - but somebody needs to
take the reins!
see also http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/sg_prop.html

Michael Paine
New South Wales Coordinator
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteer Coordinators

Subject: Spaceguard raised in UK Parliament

Please see the following links for reports on an excellent speech given
by Mr. Lembit Öpik, a UK MP. This is probably one of the most eloquent
speeches on a scientific subject that has occurred in any parliament.

3 Mar 1999:BBC
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk_politics/newsid_289000/289733.stm )
UK Politics 'Invest to avert armageddon' - funding for NEO detection
raised in UK Parliament. See also
(
http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm199899/cmhansrd/cm990303/debtext/90303-53.htm#90303-53_head1
)
Hansard (Transcripts from UK Parliament) and
(http://www.msnbc.com/news/246287.asp ) MSNBC - quote:
"We do need a number of telescopes at different longitudes and
different latitudes in order to have a complete survey. You can
think of it this way: If an asteroid should come by while one side
of the earth is facing it, we want to have a telescope that can
see it. (It is a) very good idea (to set up telescopes in the
Southern Hemisphere, especially Australia. Should an asteroid
pass in an extreme southerly direction, we could easily miss that
one" (Paul Chodas, NASA/JPL, 3 March 1999)

Quote from Mr. Lembit Öpik
"Even though the impact represents the greatest environmental danger
there is--far greater than an all-out nuclear war--until recently, the
subject has been regarded as a joke. When I originally asked about the
threats, we contacted the Ministry of Defence, which said that it was
really a matter for the Department of the Environment, Transport and
the Regions. The DETR passed us on to the Home Office, which suggested
the Department of Trade and Industry.

In desperation, we asked the Library for advice. Having listened to our
asteroid story and heard of the level of devastation that a reasonably
large object could cause, there was silence, before the librarian asked
whether we had thought about contacting the Archbishop of Canterbury.
Impacts are part of science, not religion."

Almost the same sequence has occurred in Australia (shuffling between
portfolios and departments). This issue needs the politicians to tell
the bureaucrats what to do, otherwise it will go around in endless
loops.

Michael Paine
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteer Coordinators

Subject: US Congress doubles NASA's budget for asteroid detection

The search for Earth-threatening asteroids and comets has received
support in the US Congress and UK Parliament:

The US Congress has doubled NASA's budget for NEO detection. See
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c106:1:./temp/~c106gw84hA:e13413:
and http://www.hq.nasa.gov/congress/

A presentation to the UK All Party Parliamentary Astronomy and Space
Environment Group by Professor Mark Bailey from Armagh Observatory.
see http://www.arm.ac.uk/paseg/paseg.html

Michael Paine
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html

Subject: NASA's Spaceguard budget tripled - what about Australia?

THE PLANETARY SOCIETY AUSTRALIAN VOLUNTEERS
Media Release 27 May 1999
G.P.O.Box 2086, Canberra 2601

US Congress triples NASA's budget for Near Earth Object Survey - what
about Australia?

Australian members of The Planetary Society have called on the
Australian Government to re-commence the search for Earth-threatening
asteroids and comets... (see press release)

Martyn Evans

John Moore MP

Professional asteroid search restarts in Australia

10 Sept 1999
from Michael Paine
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/

After a three year break a professional search for Earth-threatening
asteroids will soon begin again in Australia. The project is a
collaboration between astronomers at the University of Arizona and
the Australian National University. It involves refurbishing a
telescope at Siding Spring in New South Wales and providing a very
sensitive electronic detector array, computer pointing control and
automatic detection software.

The project will help to fill a huge gap in our ability to detect
asteroids which might collide with the Earth. Until now the only
professional searches were in the Northern Hemisphere - the southern
half of the sky was not covered. Early detection of a potentially
threatening asteroids is essential if mankind is to have sufficient time
to mitigate the threat. Even the moderate rocket power we have available
today would be sufficient to deflect an asteroid away from a collision,
provided that the action can be taken over decades and the asteroid is
given a little nudge during each orbit around the Sun.

In 1996 the Australian government cancelled the Spaceguard Australia
program, also based at Siding Spring. Between 1990 and 1996 the project
was responsible for about one third of all Near Earth Object detections
and demonstrated the importance of a Southern Hemisphere search effort.
Astronomer Rob McNaught, who is managing the new project, was a member
of that successful team.

Although the ANU/UA project is a welcome development renewed government
funding for an additional telescope will be required if the goals of the
international Spaceguard Survey are to be achieved. That goal is to
discover, within a decade, 90% of Earth-approaching asteroids with a
diameter of 1 km or more. A collision by an asteroid of this size would
be a grave threat to our civilisation and the death toll would likely be
in the hundreds of millions.

Links
For a copy of the joint ANU/UA press release see NASA NEO News:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news066.html

Thank you for your email. The information which you have provided has been
noted.

Office of The Hon John Moore, MP
Canberra

Senator Natasha Stott Despoja

23 November 1999

Dear Senator,
Spaceguard Australia - the search for Earth-threatening asteroids and comets
Astronomer Duncan Steel, who now works in Britain due to the lack of a Spaceguard search in Australia, informs me that you are looking at the government's performance on this issue. In researching the issue please make sure you talk to Charles Lawson. I have been keeping Charles up-to-date on developments.
For more information, including coies of my correspondence with Australian politicians (including your office) see:
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd3.html
For more about Spaceguard see
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html
Let me know if I can help in any way.

Regards

Michael Paine
NSW Coordinator
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers

The Editor, Engineers Australia
Audiences who saw the movies Deep Impact and Armageddon no doubt came
away thinking that we don't need Bruce Willis to save the world because
there is a dedicated band of scientists staring at the skies looking out
for an asteroid "with our name on it". Sorry - think again. The
worldwide detection effort is at most, about one tenth of that needed to
meet the realistic goals of the proposed international Spaceguard
Survey. The shameful fact is that Australia's contribution is
essentially zero. Government funding for a low-budget but highly
successful asteroid search program was cut in 1996 - probably because it
straddled ministerial portfolios and there was no appropriate budget
pigeonhole.
In the next 50 years there is a 1 in 2,000 chance of a 1 kilometre
diameter asteroid impacting the Earth at a speed of around 70,000km/h.
At this speed the object has more energy than its equivalent mass in
TNT. The consequences would be global and catastrophic - this would not
be an "extinction event" but perhaps one quarter of the world's
population would die and civilisation would collapse. Impact by smaller
objects occur more frequently and could threaten the fragile global
economy.
Why I am raising this issue in an engineering magazine? I am a
mechanical engineer with a background in road safety research. When I
applied the cost-effectiveness procedures that are used to justify road
safety initiatives to the Spaceguard proposal I realised that the
project was highly cost-effective. Furthermore this was based on very
conservative estimates because it only considered Australian lives
saved; it did not consider global fatalities, the economic consequences
of an impact or the effects of tsunami hitting low-lying coastal areas.
This is clearly a government responsibility but it appears that
Australian politicians are not prepared to consider an issue that, in
their judgement, is not likely to have an effect
before the next election. I am hopeful, however, that corporate
Australia is more prepared to look to the longer term and will sponsor
an Australian Spaceguard program. This has occurred in the USA with the
successful Spacewatch project. With this in mind I have prepared a
website with a comprehensive proposal for Australia. This has been done
entirely on a voluntary basis with a determination to "make things
happen".
On the Web see http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/sg_prop.html or
search Alta Vista for "Spaceguard".
Michael Paine
MIEAust

Press Release 9 February 2000

Australian astronomer helps to ally asteroid concerns

Once again observations by an Australian astronomer have proved crucial
to show that an asteroid will not collide with the Earth. On 28 January
an asteroid was discovered in an orbit that brings it close to the Earth
every 11 years. Calculations by Italian scientist Andrea Milani showed
that it had a slight possibility of a collision with the Earth in 2022,
after a close approach in 2011.
Asteroid hunter Rob McNaught, from Siding Spring in Australia, managed
to observe the asteroid on the night of the announcement. His new
observations have helped to pin down the orbit and fresh calculations
show that a collision is not possible.

McNaught's current work is done on a shoe-string budget. Up until 1996
he was a member of a highly successful Australian team searching for
asteroids that might collide with the Earth. Four years ago the
Australian government stopped funding this program. Since then the
Planetary Society and other groups have put forward a strong case for
Australia to rejoin the international search effort.

In May 1999 observations by Australian-based asteroid hunter Frank
Zoltowski caused the Minor Planet Centre to review the predicted orbit
of asteroid 1999 AN10 and conclude that it was not on a collision course
with the Earth.

Contact: Michael Paine mpaine@tpgi.com.au
ph 02 94514870 fax 02 99753966
Info http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html

Michael has written a series of articles about the asteroid and comet
threat for the US organisation Space.com
see http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/reading.html

Subject: Spaceguard status - protecting Earth from asteroids and comets

Spaceguard is the name given to the international program to search for
large asteroids and comets that might collide with the Earth.

I first became involved with this issue when I found out that in 1996
the Australian government stopped funding a highly succssful but low
cost search effort based at Siding Spring in NSW. I wrote to my local
Member of Parliament, then Assistant Minister for Defence, Bronwyn
Bishop. I receieved an ill-informed reply and decided to investigate the
issue further. I created a website (
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html ) to present my
research findings and correspondence with politicians. I also
contributed to international debate on the issue via the CCNet email
network. Subsequently I was asked to write a scientific paper on the
subject of tsunami from asteorid impacts for the international journal
Science of Tsunami Hazards (paper published in December 1999, Vol 17
No.3 9.4Mb PDF). (the tsunami threat - not necessarily from asteorids - to the
populated east coast of Australia still hasn't received adequate
recognition).

I was also asked to write a series of popular articles on "Rocks from
Space" for the US website SPACE.com ( see list of articles at
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/reading.html). Here are some
highlights:

The January 2000 article "Simulting Armageddon on your PC" set out the
results of a detailed simulation of impacts on a populated earth and
described the likelihood and consequences of various types of collision.
I subsequently received a request from Dr Benny Peiser for a further
analysis to look at the likely impact events over the past 10,000 years.
Dr Peiser used this information for his address to the annual meeting of
the American Association for the Advancement of Science in March. This
work concentrates on expected fatalities from such events and shows a
very high cost effectiveness for Spaceguard. In fact, economic
disruption from "regional" devastation would be justification by itself
for a worldwide spaceguard program. An asteroid/comet impact is the only
natural event that could seriously threaten our civilisation and yet it
is one of the few that can be both accurately predicted and prevented.

The February 2000 SPACE.com article "Defending Earth: fact vs fiction"
looked at the feasibility of deflecting an Earth-threatening asteroid. I
received advice from numerous scientists and concluded that the Earth
could be saved from most threatening objects provided that sufficient
warning time was given. This is why a vigilant, effective Spaceguard
detection system is so important - it can be expected to provide decades
of warning for a pending collision and give the human species time to
take mitigating action. Without an effective Spaceguard system there is
virtually no warning.

The April 2000 article has just been released. See "Bigger Telescopes
Seek Killer Asteroids" at
http://www.space.com/news/japan_spacewatch_000426.html
(Links and references are at:
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/reading.html#ez9 )

It deals with the status of "Project Spaceguard". I obtained advice from
scientists running asteroid detection programs around the world and from
two key NASA scientists - Don Yeomans, manager of NASA NEO Program
Office and Alan Harris from JPL. Yeomans made the point that "NEOs are
an international problem and they require an international
solution." He stressed the need for detection and follow-up programs to
be spread around the globe.

The most successful asteroid search program, in terms of discovery rates
is the LINEAR program which uses US Air Force funds and equipment
(originally developed for tracking Soviet satellites) at White Sands Air
Base in New Mexico.

Dr Syuzo Isobe sent me details about the operation of the new Bisei
Spaceguard Centre in Japan. The 0.5 m telescope is in operation and the
1m telescope should be ready in September this year. The budget and
staffing details kindly provided by Dr Isobe will enable me to review my
3 year old proposal for an Australian centre
( http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/sg_prop.html - I was not far
off the mark)

In 1998 Alan Harris from NASA looked at the requirements to meet the
Spaceguard (now NASA) goal of discovery 90% of Near Earth ASTEROIDS 1km
or larger within a decade. He found that 6 telescopes that reached 20.5
magnitude could achieve the task - including some automatic follow-up
work (but detailed follow-up work by other telescopes will
still be critical). He noted that, with recent technology advances, 1m
telescopes should be adequate (compared with 2.5m telescope envisaged in
the 1992 Spaceguard Report) BUT THIS WAS YET TO BE PROVEN (from time to
time Harris conducts statistical analysis of the performance of each of
the NEO search programs to calculate their effective limiting
magnitude). If 1m telescopes can do the job then, by the end of the
year, there will be
at least 5 this large dedicated to NEO discoveries (LINEARx2,
Spacewatch, NEAT and Bisei). According to Harris's calculations ONLY ONE
MORE WOULD BE REQUIRED TO MEET THE SPACEGUARD GOAL.

That brings us to Australia! Rob McNaught runs the only professional
search effort in the southern hemisphere. His work is funded mostly by
NASA - there is still no Australian government funding. McNaught is
currently upgrading a 0.6m telescope. This will be important for
follow-up work but a larger automated system is needed to reliably
discover objects first appearing in southern skies. Presumably there are
already defence facilities in Australia which have telescopes equivalent
to those used by LINEAR in the USA. If one of these could be upgraded
and assigned for asteroid detection for two weeks per month (for the
other two weeks the Moon affects observations) then Australia would have
a program that is equal to that of the new Japanese Spaceguard Centre -
for a fraction of the price.

Can I suggest that now is a very good time for the Australian government
to step in and take the initiative - to re-establish a Spaceguard program
in Australia. The equipment requirements have now been identified, we
have experts in this field and we have the ideal position for making a
significant contribution to the search effort.

regards
Michael Paine
1 May 2000

Subject: Times article about a comet

'Invisible' comet too close for comfort
The Times May 18 2000
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?1986266
BY NIGEL HAWKES, SCIENCE EDITOR
A COMET that passed by unnoticed three years ago has
raised new fears of a catastrophic collision. Although the
comet was bright enough to be seen even by amateur
astronomers in their gardens, it has been detected only
because of measurements made accidentally by a satellite
designed to observe the Sun.

A group of Finnish meteorologists report in Nature that an
instrument on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
satellite detected radiation from five comets which crossed
the SOUTHERN SKIES in 1997. Four of them had been seen by
ground-based observers BUT ONE PASSED BY UNRECORDED.

"Because the comet was almost constant in brightness over
several months, it should have been easily observable from
the ground," the team, led by Teemu Mäkinen, concludes.
The failure to do so "underlines the need for full-sky
surveillance of comets"...

An example of the consequences of closing down the Australian search
program in 1996.

regards
Michael Paine

Subject: UK Asteroid Task Force

Dear Minister,
You may be aware that over the past 8 months a high level UK task force
has been looking at the issue of the threat to Earth from asteroids and
comets. The last UK Parlimentary Report (in 1999) on this subject
referred to my work in publicising this issue. See
http://www.parliament.uk/post/pn126.pdf

I understand that the UK Task Force report will be made public in
mid-September (unfortunate timing in Australia with the Olympics). Based
on press reports to date I anticipate that the Task Force will recommend
at least one major telescope being dedicated to NEO detection and that
they will point out the crucial need for such a telescope in the
Southerm Hemisphere.

Can I suggest that you contact the UK government I determine whether
there are any initiatives that Australia can take in implementing the
Task Forces recommendations.

I have not approached any other politicians on this matter at this stage
in order to give you the chance of taking the initiative. Once the
report is released I will be writing an article for the US www.space.com
website. I hope to have some good news to report from Australia.

regards
Michael Paine
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html

A response!

Subject: UK Asteroid Task Force Report

Mr Michael Paine
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
mpaine@tpgi.com.au

Dear Mr Paine

Thank you for your e-mail message of 27 August 2000 concerning the
forthcoming UK Asteroid Task Force Report.

I note the continuing high level of interest in areas of the scientific
community, including amateur astronomical organisations such as the
Planetary Society Australian Volunteers, in the detection and tracking of
near-earth objects (NEOs). However, as NEO observation and research is
essentially a civil science pursuit, it would be more appropriate for the
Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) to evaluate the task
force's recommendations.

Should you wish to pursue this matter further, the contact officer is:

                Ms Karen Kuschert
                Manager
                Space and Aerospace Industries Section
                Department of Industry, Science and Resources
                GPO Box 9839
                CANBERRA ACT 2600

I trust this information will be of assistance to you.

Yours sincerely

John Moore

Sound familiar? So much for "taking the initiative"

British asteroid report is a blow to Australian astronomy

The Howard Government withdrew funding for "Spaceguard Australia" in 1996. Since 1996 there has been no professional asteroid search in the Southern Hemisphere (that is, on the scale of US programs - Rob McNaught at Siding Side is doing significant follow-up work and making some discoveries). This is raised as a major concern in the British report but the report stops short of recommending that a major new telescope be built in Australia.

In the longer term Australian Government indifference could jeopardise joint British-Australian astronomy programs such as the Anglo-Australian Observatory because Britain must look seriously at joining the European
Southern Observatory in Chile to pursue its Spaceguard plans.

These developments are covered in more detail at Space.com:
http://www.space.com/opinionscolumns/opinions/asteroid_opinion_000918.html

CONTACT DETAILS
Michael Paine
NSW Coordinator
The Planetary Society Australia Volunteers
Phone 02 94514870 Fax 02 99753966 email mpaine@tpgi.com.au

Additional information:
The British report can be downloaded from
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk

A Space.com article 'Brits Should Help in Hunt for Killer Asteroids' by
Michael Paine is at
http://space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/asteroid_report_000918.html
The main conclusions of the report are:
* Impacts by asteroids and comets present a real and significant risk to
humans and other life on Earth
* Means now exist to avoid or reduce the fatalities caused by such
impacts but only if the threatening objects are detected well in advance
of the collision.
* Search programs should give priority to "Near Earth Asteroids" (NEAs)
down to 300 m diameter rather than the 1 kilometer goal adopted by NASA.
* Earth-based telescope systems can carry out most of the necessary
detection and follow-up work but they will need to be larger than those
of current NEA detection systems.
* Britain should contribute to a major new telescope facility in the
Southern Hemisphere to make up for the lack of a professional search
effort in southern skies.

Some reactions from scientists are at
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc091800.html

More information about the asteroid threat is available from The
Planetary Society Australian Volunteers website:
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html
THIS WEBSITE IS LISTED AS A USEFUL REFERENCE IN THE BRITISH REPORT.

Subject: Australia's role in defence from asteroids and comets

Although the risk of impact is low the consequences are so grave that
many national governments have taken the issue very seriously. A key
factor is that unlike other major natural disasters, an impact can be
prevented with current technology PROVIDED SUFFICIENT WARNING TIME IS
GIVEN (hence the urgency of the search program).

I have had a sorry series of responses from government Ministers over
the past four years (see
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd3.html )

I hope that you are able to bring a much more positive approach to the
issue. Please don't let the bureaucrats tell you it is a matter for
another portfolio - the fact is they do not have a pidgeon hole for it
and so shuffle it around.

There are tremendous PR opportunities here at exceptionally low cost
(several million dollars to set up a suitable telescope system and about
half a million per year to run the program - much less than the costs of
Australia searching for lost round-the-world yachtsmen!). The UK is
currently considering building a Spaceguard telescope in the Southern
Hemisphere. If the Australian government shows no interest it will
probably be built in Chile. The South Australian government is looking
at building a Spaceguard telescope at Woomera. And NASA is looking for a
partner in the southern hemisphere.

Go for it!

regards and seasons greetings
Michael Paine
NSW Coordinator, The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers

Reith, Peter

Mr Michael Paine
mpaine@tpgi.com.au

Dear Mr Paine,

Thank you for sending Mr Reith your recent emails regarding Spaceguard.

Mr Reith is not officially sworn in as the Minister for Defence until the
last week of January.

Your email will be brought to his attention though and dealt with as soon as
possible after that date.

Yours sincerely
Office of the Hon Peter Reith MP

Reith, Peter

Mr Michael Paine
mpaine@tpgi.com.au

Dear Mr Paine

Thank you for e-mail of 6 February 2001 regarding Australia's role in defence from asteroids and comets.

There is really nothing further to add to our response to your last letter but we thank you for your interest in this matter.

Yours sincerely
Office of the Hon P Reith MP

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Paine [SMTP:mpaine@tpgi.com.au]
> Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 4:42 PM
> To: Reith, Peter (MP)
> Subject: Re: Australia's role in defence from asteroids and comets
>
> To the "Office of the Hon Peter Reith MP"
> Any developments on this matter? The UK government is currently looking
> for international partners to help build and run a southern hemisphere
> Spaceguard telescope. Just a little contribution from Australia would
> provide incentive to build it here rather than Chile.
>
> Please also note that the largest and most successful asteroid search
> program uses US Air Force facilities. They clearly see asteroid
> detection as a defence issue.
> regards
> Michael Paine

Press Release 25 Feb 2001

In a press release dated 19 September 2000
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd3.html#pr000919 we warned that the UK government was looking at options for implementing the recommendations of its Near Earth Object Task Force and that, if Australia did not show an interest, the UK would likely locate a new Spaceguard telescope in Chile.

The UK government has just released its response to the Task Force report
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk/government_response.cfm
Although a final decision has not yet been made on the southern hemisphere telescope the response states:
"In November 2000 the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry announced that the UK intended to join the European Southern Observatory (ESO) whose telescopes are in the southern hemisphere. ESO has indicated that it is interested in exploring with the UK the possibility that a 3 metre-class telescope could be made available at its observing sites in Chile."

There now appears to be no prospect of the Spaceguard telescope being located in Australia. This is likely to have grave repercussions for other fields of astronomy in Australia.

The Anglo-Australian Observatory (AAO) has been in operation in Australia for decades and will no doubt continue its high standard of astronomy. The AAO astronomers will likely put on a brave face over this UK announcement but, in the long-term, it is inevitable that the UK will wind down its contribution to AAO as it puts more of its resources into ESO.

The Australian government's indifference to the asteroid threat is jeopardising the future of Australian astronomy as well as making Australia a pariah nation in the eyes of the international scientific community (these words were recently used by author and scientist Paul Davies to describe the Australian government's dismal record on Spaceguard)

CONTACT DETAILS
          Michael Paine
          NSW Coordinator
          The Planetary Society Australia Volunteers
          Phone 02 94514870 Fax 02 99753966 email mpaine@tpgi.com.au

          Additional information:
          The British report can be downloaded from
          http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk

        The main conclusions of the report are:
* Impacts by asteroids and comets present a real and significant risk to humans and other life on Earth
* Means now exist to avoid or reduce the fatalities caused by such impacts but only if the threatening objects are detected well in advance of the collision.
          * Search programs should give priority to "Near EarthAsteroids" (NEAs) down to 300 m diameter rather than the 1 kilometer goal adopted by NASA.
          * Earth-based telescope systems can carry out most of the necessary detection and follow-up work but they will need to be larger than those of current NEA detection systems.
          * Britain should contribute to a major new telescope facility in the Southern Hemisphere to make up for the lack of a professional search effort in southern skies.

More information about the asteroid threat is available from The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers website: http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html
THIS WEBSITE IS LISTED AS A USEFUL REFERENCE IN THE BRITISH
REPORT.

The woeful responses from the Australian government on this issue are at: http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd3.html

Nick Minchin

My suggestion was "grab the initiative". Unfortunately, this is a "wait and see if we are forced to do anything" reply, although it is better researched than previous replies.

Spaceguard - a bargain insurance policy against killer asteroids

Press Release from the Planetary Society Australian Volunteers

27 August 2001

"Spaceguard" is an international effort to search the skies for large
asteroids that might collide with Earth and devastate civilisation. The
present Australian government has consistently tried to ignore the
hazard posed by asteroid impacts and the need for Spaceguard, in
contradiction to the
scientific evidence published in international journals, and against all
assessments carried out by such organisations as the US government, the
UK government, the United Nations, the Council of Europe and the
International Astronomical Union.

Now a space policy document issued by the government in June this year
calls into question the Australian government's stand on Spaceguard. The
document "Maximum Probable Loss Methodology" sets out guidelines for
assessing the losses from rocket launch failures and was issued by the
Space Licensing and Safety Office of the Department
of Industry, Science and Resources. These guidelines value
"casualties", that is death or serious injury, at $5 million each and
note that probabilities of death or injury greater than one in 10
million are "unacceptable".

The risk, in any one year, of an asteroid impact at a level
causing global devastation (upwards of one-quarter of all humanity
being killed) is estimated to be between about one in 100,000 and one
in 500,000. Over five million Australians would die, perhaps a greater
proportion than in most other nations because we mostly live on the
coasts, and so are especially vulnerable to the mega-tsunamis associated
with large asteroid impacts. Using the extremely conservative values of
five million deaths and a one-in-500,000 annual chance then the
Government's $5 million valuation of each life gives an annual
expectation of loss of about $50 million. This figure does not include
the costs of injuries or property damage, let alone the consequences of
global economic collapse. Also it does not account for the effects of
smaller impacts that cause regional devastation.

By the government's own guidelines the lack of action on Spaceguard is
unacceptable.

As astronomer Duncan Steel has pointed out, this makes the Spaceguard
program an absolute bargain insurance policy for civilisation.

[UK to set up an asteroid research centre]

On 17 August this year the British government announced that it was
setting up a centre to study the asteroid threat and provide information
to the public. The centre was proposed last year by a task force of top
British
scientists who were asked to investigate Britain's involvement in
Spaceguard.

Australia has had a Spaceguard information centre for nearly five years.
It is a website operated by the Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
and covers a wide range of topics from the cost of running a major
search program (about $600,000 per year) to the death toll from tsunami
generated by ocean impacts. In their report, the British task force
describe the Australian website as "a particularly useful resource".
Plans for the website started in 1996 when the Australian government
cancelled a highly successful asteroid search project based at the
Anglo-Australian Observatory in New South Wales.

Society Volunteer Michael Paine, who maintains the website in Australia
said that it had been very frustrating dealing with a succession of
Australian government ministers. He said that the lack of
interest from Defence portfolio had been particularly disappointing
because it clearly had a major role to play. In the USA, scientists and
engineers are enthusiastically turning their Cold War defence projects
into asteroid impact research. Telescopes previously used for tracking
soviet satellites are now looking for killer asteroids. Super-computer
programs that simulate the effects of nuclear explosions are being used
to estimate the environmental effects of asteroid impacts with the Earth
and the feasibility of deflecting Earth-bound asteroids.

Contact
Michael Paine, Ph 02 94514870 mpaine@tpgi.com.au

LINKS
Australian Spaceguard Survey Homepage
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html

Maximum Probable Loss Methodology, Space Licensing and Safety Office
http://www.isr.gov.au/industry/space/MPLmethodologyJune01.pdf

BBC: Centre to study asteroid threat
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_1498000/1498622.stm

UK NEO Task Force Report
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk

AIAA report pointing out the need for a Spacegaurd telescope in the
soutern hemisphere
http://www2.aiaa.org/international/information/PDF/ISCW-6_report.pdf

FAQs
What are the environmental consequences of asteroid impacts?
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/climate.htm

What are the risks of major impacts with the Earth and possible death
tolls?
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd7.html

Are places like Sydney at greater risk due to the danger of tsunami
generated by impacts? Yes - several times greater than inland locations:
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd7.html

Can anything be done if an asteroid if found to be on a collision course
with Earth? Yes - we have the technology to nudge a rogue asteroids into
a harmless orbit but only if there is early warning - the purpose of
Spaceguard.
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/reading.html#ez8

More links
http://spaceguard.ias.rm.cnr.it
http://dialspace.dial.pipex.com/town/terrace/fr77/
http://www.arm.ac.uk/home.html
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk/
http://neo.planetary.org/
http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/mpc.html
http://users.kua.net/~vnn2/bigrock.htm
http://www.astro.uu.se/planet/earn/default.htm
http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/index.html
http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/
http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/spacewatch/
http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/
http://www.ll.mit.edu/LINEAR/
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

Press Release 15 March 2002

Newly discovered asteroid warrants "careful monitoring"

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

This discovery, by the LINEAR telescope in New Mexico on 7 February
2002, stresses the need for a major southern hemisphere Spaceguard
program. In effect one third of the night sky is missed by current major
search programs, which are based in the northern hemisphere.

In January 90 scientists from 17 countries sent a letter to Australian
Prime Minister John Howard and several of his Ministers, seeking
government support for Spaceguard. A response might be forthcoming when
(Australian) Channel 9's 60 Minutes TV show covers this issue on Sunday
17th March.
The letter is available at
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/pr_oz_sg.htm

Michael Paine
NSW Coordinator
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers

Press Release 19 Mar 2002

Subject: Science Minister misinformed about asteroid threat

Last Sunday night the Australian TV show 60 Minutes aired The Threat
Above (transcripts at
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/sixtyminutes/stories/2002_03_17/story_531.asp
)
It covered the threat of the Earth being hit by asteroids and the need
for a Spaceguard program in Australia.
Viewer Suvey:
SHOULD SPACEGUARD FUNDING BE RESTORED IN AUSTRALIA?
Yes 92% No 8%

RESPONSES TO CRITICS
The following are some extracts from the Transcripts with some
clarifying comments in [square brackets]. For numerous links and
reference material, including a copy of the letter to the Prime Minister
see:
http://www4.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd.html

PETER McGAURAN: I'm not going to be spooked or panicked into spending
scarce research dollars on a fruitless attempt to predict the next
asteroid.
LIZ HAYES: Peter McGauran is the Minister for Science. He [The Howard
Government, in 1996] axed the Spaceguard program, taking Australia out
of astronomy's version of Neighbourhood Watch.
PETER McGAURAN: We spend about $18 million a year on astronomy and
that's a significant investment by Australia, particularly by worldwide
standards. I wouldn't like to divert [a non-too-subtle threat to other
astronomers that they will lose funds if they support Spaceguard] up to
five or more percent of that budget towards a fruitless, unnecessary,
self-indulgent exercise [the US Congress doesn't think so - it directed
NASA to start a Spaceguard program in the early 1990s].
LIZ HAYES: Self-indulgent because scientists like Duncan Steel think it
should be done?
PETER McGAURAN: How many others agree with them? I know they've gathered
together a number of scientific generalists I want the astronomers
themselves, under the supervision of an objective worldwide working
party, making a true and proper assessment. I'm just not convinced that
the hype and alarm and even fear-mongering is enough to justify an
instant investment.
[A letter to the Prime Minister earlier this year was signed by 91
scientists from 17 countries. They nearly all work in the asteroid
research field - there has probably never been such a collection of
highly qualified experts from this field united on one issue. They
include Don Yeomans - head of NASA Spaceguard program, David Levy and
Carolyn Shoemaker - discoverers of the comet that hit Jupiter in 1994,
Brian Marsden - head of the Minor Planet Centre that catalogues these
objects, Ann Druyan - CEO of Cosmos Studies - who along with husband
Carl Sagan first alerted the general public to the asteroid threat in
the 1980 TV series Cosmos, Lou Friedman - Executive Director of The
Planetary Society and Clark Chapman who has addressed the US Congress
about the threat. The 1992 International Spaceguard Workshop identified
the risks and recommended that a global search program be set up -
Australia was part of the program at that time.]
DR DUNCAN STEEL: A letter went to Mr Howard last week with 91
signatories, in essence a roll call of all the world's experts in this
area saying, "Please, we need Australia to be involved. You are the most
technologically developed country in the Southern Hemisphere. We need
you to be involved in this."
PETER McGAURAN: I lie awake worrying about a lot of other things.
Near-miss asteroids is not one of them.
BRIAN BOYLE: Who are you going to get to guard the planet? A bunch of
astronomers or a bunch of scientists? I don't think so. It is clearly,
firmly, a Defence matter.
[Most of us agree with Dr Boyle that this is largely a defence matter.
The US Air Force runs the most effective asteroid search program in the
world using automated telescopes that used to search for soviet spy
satellites.]
LIZ HAYES: Brian Boyle is Director of the Anglo Australian Observatory
in Sydney. He says what's the point of tracking asteroids if there's
nothing you can do to stop them?
BRIAN BOYLE: My colleagues are very well-intentioned and I have the
greatest of respect for these people and they're right to identify it as
an issue, but frankly, I think that a threat that exists without a
credible response policy, as the asteroid threat indeed is, is not
looking at the full picture. Please, don't lose any sleep. The asteroid
is not necessarily going to come and get you tomorrow.
[Over the past decade the asteroid threat has been addressed through two
strands - finding them decades before they hit the Earth and working out
ways to nudge them into harmless orbits. We have the technology to
prevent a disaster and can do this IF there are decades of warning. This
is only possible with a global Spaceguard program. Currently the world
is blind in the south.]

Prepared by Michael Paine
NSW Coordinator
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers

Comment from Michael Paine: I reject the suggestion that funding for Spaceguard should come solely (if at all) from the astronomy budget. This is clearly a defence issue. After all, Australia is spending 100s of millions of dollars protecting its borders from asylum seekers (a few hundred boat people in dire circumstances). Now that's what I call a "fruitless, unnecessary, self-indulgent exercise", to use the words of our notorious Science Minister (although "self-indulgent" could be replaced with "selfish").
The OECD Working Party has been asking nations how they can contribute. Australia should be saying it will take an active role in the search effort - not waiting another year for yet another report that concludes there is a serious threat.

Send comments for this page to Michael Paine. Please include reference to Spaceguard in the subject line.

Return to Australian Spaceguard Survey

AUSTRALIAN SPACEGUARD SURVEY CORRESPONDENCE WITH AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT

Press releases from TPS Australian Volunteers

Background

Dr Jack Best

Bronwyn Bishop MP

The Australian Search for Earth-threatening Asteroids

Further Emails:

Subject: Spaceguard raised in UK Parliament

Subject: Spaceguard raised in UK Parliament

Subject: US Congress doubles NASA's budget for asteroid detection

Subject: NASA's Spaceguard budget tripled - what about Australia?

Senator Natasha Stott Despoja

Press Release 9 February 2000

Australian astronomer helps to ally asteroid concerns

Subject: Spaceguard status - protecting Earth from asteroids and comets

Subject: Times article about a comet

British asteroid report is a blow to Australian astronomy

Subject: Australia's role in defence from asteroids and comets

Press Release 25 Feb 2001

Spaceguard - a bargain insurance policy against killer asteroids

Press Release 15 March 2002

Newly discovered asteroid warrants "careful monitoring"

Press Release 19 Mar 2002

Subject: Science Minister misinformed about asteroid threat

AUSTRALIAN SPACEGUARD SURVEY

CORRESPONDENCE WITH AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT